Scientific evidence of global climate change continues to mount, a rising sea of data. Last week, scientists released new estimates of global temperatures over the last 11,300 years, a time period covering most of the current geological epoch, the Holocene. (We live in the Holocene Epoch of the Quarternary Period of the Cenozoic Era of the Phanerozoic Eon.) The work, in the current issue of Science, can be found here (full article behind pay wall). A New York Times article about it is here. The new work provides evidence that our planet had been gradually cooling over the past 5,000 years, until a sharp rise in temperatures began about 200 years ago, around the time of the industrial revolution.
Plenty of climate change skeptics in the blogosphere will claim that this new study is flawed, doesn’t “prove” climate change is caused by humans, or that it just provides more evidence that climate change is natural. (Climate change is natural, but on a very different time scale, and the natural forces that cause it are being overridden by the effect of greenhouse gases.) Still, some conservatives are starting to worry about the earth too. Recently released polling results from the National Surveys on Energy and Environment (a project of the University of Michigan and Muhlenberg College) shows that, for the first time since 2008, a majority of Republicans state that global warming is occurring. That does not mean that they believe the warming is caused by human activity or that action needs to be taken, but it does suggest shifting attitudes. (A summary of the survey results can be found here.)
So what to do?
Here’s my proposal: Let’s give conservatives a free pass if they want to start talking about solutions. Instead of saying “I told you so,” let’s redouble our effort to find common ground. One can certainly say that there is a lot about earth’s climate that we do not understand and the issue needs further study. That’s true and it does not conflict with the statement that it is “extremely likely that human activities have caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperatures since the 1950s.” (The quotation is from a leaked draft of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report, due out later this year.) Let’s remind Republicans that they are the party of Teddy Roosevelt and that dealing with climate change is modern day conservationism.
It makes sense that so many conservatives are reluctant to accept climate science because the policy solution proposed by many is increased regulation, anathema to most conservatives. A Pure Cap-and-Dividend approach would allow decreased regulation and would use market incentives to solve climate change – ideas highly consistent with conservative thinking.
We can – and should – argue over the particulars. But that’s another conversation, a conversation about solutions that I’m glad to have. I, for one, will resist saying “I told you so.” At least I will try. There is a lot to be gained.